There is a distinction to be drawn between Forecasts and Projections:

Forecasts

The forecast exercise takes place annually starting in November and finishing around February half term. The exercise provides Education Finance with an estimate of numbers on roll for the following September to March thus forming 7/12th of the schools annual weighted pupil unit (AWPU) budget.  The other 5/12ths i.e. April to August is provided by Research and Statistics based on actual form 7 figures collected in January.

The Planning Information Officer's main task is to make an assessment school by school of the anticipated new intake i.e. reception, age 11 and sixth form, the remaining figures are achieved by rolling forward form 7 data.  The PIO uses the projection information and previous trends plus local knowledge to make the forecast using the ward profiles and constituency profiles as the working document.

The individual school returns are sent to schools over the Christmas break and are collected in by the first week in February.  This gives a couple of weeks to reconcile Heads versions of the forecasts against the PIOs. Where wide discrepancies are found (always over forecasts) schools are phoned although it is rare for a head to amend their figure as a result.  The information is passed to Education Finance who issue the budget to schools in the first week of March.

Projections

Projections are made for up to four years in primary and up to eleven years in secondary plus post 16.  These are used by Education Finance for the SSA and are also primarily used by the PIO to assess the long-term demand for school places.

The information is also used in the annual surplus place return to DfEE undertaken in May.  Each authority has to submit their projections methodology with the return.  Other departments and agencies use the projections, e.g. social services, Health (for immunisation) and in addition Early Years (nursery provision).

Further information about this ia available in the document Projection Methodology.